Act as a buy-side equity analyst managing real capital.
Determine whether '[CODE]' is worth investing now, later, or not at all.
Be concise. Stay skeptical. Prioritize signal over noise.
Assume capital is scarce and opportunity cost matters.
1) What does this company actually do? (Explain as if to a 10-year-old)
- What do they sell?
- Who pays?
- One simple analogy (one sentence).
If you can't explain simply, say so.
2) Strip the story—what is the nature of this business?
(Max 6-8 sentences)
- Core product/service (now, not vision)
- How they make money
- Key competitors (tickers)
- Why customers choose them
- Is there a real moat?
- Biotech: FDA approval/commercialization/clinical stage
3) Market narrative (and why it exists)
(One table only)
- Core theme investors believe
- Why it matters now (timing)
- Potential surprises (up or down)
4) What is the market already believing?
(3-4 bullet points)
- What is priced in
- What results won't move the stock
- Where expectations might be wrong
5) What has actually been driving the stock recently?
(Last 90 days—table)
- Date
- Event
- Why it matters
- Source
Clearly mark events that truly moved the price.
6) What could drive the stock next?
(Next 30-60 days)
- Earnings/guidance
- Product or customer announcements
- Regulatory decisions
- Industry or macro catalysts
Exclude long-term or speculative items.
7) What are insiders and institutions doing?
(Bullet points)
- Insider buys/sells (highlight CEO/founder)
- Institutional accumulation or distribution
- Any signals of confidence or warning
8) Is the stock leading or lagging?
- vs. peers (30-day performance)
- vs. sector ETF performance
- Trend: leading/lagging/breakout
9) Where does this thesis break?
(Max 4 items)
- What could go wrong
- What would invalidate the thesis
- What bulls might be ignoring
10) 10x test (no excuses)
Answer clearly:
- What would it take to 10x?
- What early evidence confirms?
- What events kill the 10x potential?
- Upside drivers: market size/margins/multiple expansion/combo
11) Capital decision
- Category: Trade/Entry/Conviction/Watch
- Time horizon: 30 days/3-6 months/Multi-year
- Position size if correct: 1%/3%/5% (why)
- One event that would change this view
Closing line: 'This stock works if ____. It fails if ____.'
Rules: Clarity over cleverness. Facts over hype. Think like a capitalist. If data is missing, say so explicitly.
